Betting Against Bad Teams
~This write up is geared much more for the casual bettor, that bets on a couple games a week~
It is no secret who the worst teams are in baseball, but the hardest part about betting against them is wearing the god awful juice that comes with the territory, especially if they pull out a win which happens around 37-40% of the time. So when is a good time to bet against the worst teams in baseball?
For this write up as of (5/30/18) we are gonna use the Chicago White Sox as the example. This team through 45 games has only had (1) three-game win streak. If you simply do the math and monitor a team like the White Sox, the best time to bet against them is the day after they win and especially after two wins. If you are a casual bettor only betting on a game or two a week, I suggest you monitor the bad teams, understand how unlikely a win streak is for them, and go big after they win one or two games.
After a bad team wins a game or two, the juice will likely move in your favor. Don't worry about pitching matchups, weather, or all the other statistics that play into betting on baseball. Simply follow this rule of thumb (again, if you are only betting one to two games a week), and you will make a profit leading into the football season.
Thank you for this insight. Such a good point that the juice will be lowered after a win! I will be looking to fade white Sox actually after their win.